See what a Year-End Forecast report looks like.
A ten page sample for a fictional organization, Harbourlight Food Security Network. It shows where a year will land, who closes the gap and who to ask personally. All figures are illustrative.
One range, three scenarios and a budget line. Never a single number.
Inside the report.
Three questions, answered in order.Where will we land?
Three scenarios by stream, a pipeline reality check, seasonality and outside risks.
Who closes the gap?
The December appeal split into four lists, each with its own ask.
Who do we ask personally?
A shortlist of major gift prospects, by donor ID only.
What to do next
An action plan to 31 December, an early read on next year and every assumption.
The sample, page by page.
Fictional organization. Illustrative figures.The Year-End Forecast · Full Intelligence
Harbourlight Food Security Network
Where 2026 will land at 31 December, and who to ask to close the gap
Data to 30 September 2026 · Issued 14 October 2026
Philanthropic revenue at 31 December 2026, three scenarios (CAD)
· build4abundance.com
of the named organization
1. The answer
2026 will most likely close about $300K below budget, at $4.60M.
Year-to-date revenue is on pace with last year, but the budget assumes 7% growth. The range runs from $4.10M to $5.00M. Where Harbourlight lands depends on four major gift decisions and one provincial grant renewal, all due before 31 December, and on who receives the December asks (pages 7 and 8).
| Scenario | 31 Dec | vs budget | vs 2025 | What has to happen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $4.10M | -$0.80M | -10.3% | Only asks already made or pledged close; two asks slip into 2027; appeal softens |
| Expected | $4.60M | -$0.30M | +0.7% | Pipeline closes at historical rates; grant renewed at last year’s level; appeal goes out as usual |
| Stretch | $5.00M | +$0.10M | +9.4% | 640 donors get an upgrade ask; 18 shortlist prospects are asked by 15 December; MG-02 and MG-08 close |
Our recommendation to the board
- Plan spending for the rest of the year on the Conservative case ($4.10M) for any commitment that cannot be reversed.
- Report the Expected case ($4.60M) as the working forecast, replacing the $4.90M budget figure.
- Treat the Stretch case ($5.00M) as a team goal, driven by the who-to-ask lists on pages 7 and 8 and the actions on page 9.
2. Outlook by stream
Major gifts carry the year, and most of the uncertainty.
Major gifts account for $0.50M of the $0.90M gap between Conservative and Stretch. Monthly donors and grants are steady and predictable. The year-end appeal is where targeting makes the difference.
| Stream | 2025 | Budget | Year to date | Conservative | Expected | Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major gifts | 1.60 | 1.75 | 0.82 | 1.30 | 1.55 | 1.80 |
| Grants | 1.30 | 1.40 | 0.86 | 1.20 | 1.35 | 1.45 |
| Monthly donors | 0.79 | 0.85 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| Year-end appeal | 0.56 | 0.60 | 0.03 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| Events | 0.32 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.25* |
| Total | 4.57 | 4.90 | 2.51 | 4.10 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
* In the Stretch case the December holiday event moves to January to pair with a matching sponsor, so $0.05M shifts into 2027.
Revenue bridge: 2025 to this year’s Expected case
CAD millions. The vertical axis starts at $4.40M to make the changes readable.
- Major gifts down $0.05M: 2025 included a one-time $0.25M estate gift. Underlying major giving is up about $0.20M.
- Grants up $0.05M: one new foundation grant, assuming the provincial grant renews at last year’s level.
- Monthly donors up $0.03M: steady growth, slightly behind the 8% the budget assumed.
3. Pipeline reality check
$1.08M of open asks is worth about $0.44M by 31 December.
The major gift budget of $1.75M treats most open asks as likely. Weighted by stage and by the chance each closes before 31 December, the eight open asks add $0.44M. Four of them, all decided by 15 December, account for over 70% of that value.
How each scenario builds the major gift total
CAD millions
The eight open asks: amount asked vs value by 31 December
CAD thousands. Weighted value = ask x stage probability x chance it closes before 31 December. Donor names withheld.
4. Seasonality and timing
45% of the year is still to be raised, and December alone brings 27%.
Harbourlight is exactly on last year’s pace, but $0.19M behind the pace the budget needs. There is no January to recover in: whatever is not raised by 31 December counts for 2027.
Share of the year’s revenue raised in each month
Average of calendar years 2023 to 2025, all streams
What the timing means
- In the Expected case, about $1.24M arrives in December. A soft December cannot be made up later in the year.
- Donors give for this year’s tax receipt until 31 December, and a large share of December giving arrives in the final days. Appeals and personal asks need to be in donors’ hands by early December.
- Three of the four deciding major gifts are expected in December. Any that slips past 31 December leaves this year’s total entirely.
5. External context
The economy trims the appeal slightly; the bigger outside risk is the provincial grant.
| Signal | What we see | Applied to | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Household costs | Food and housing costs still squeezing mid-level donors | Year-end appeal, Expected | -$0.02M |
| Provincial budget | Ministry signalling restraint on community grants | Grants, Conservative | -$0.05M |
| Equity markets | Steady this year; supports year-end gifts of securities | Major gifts | None |
| Demand for services | Food bank visits rising; strengthens the case for support | Appeal message, Stretch | +$0.02M |
Illustrative signals for this sample. A live report cites current published data with dates and sources.
6. Risks and levers
Three risks could cost $0.23M. Three levers could add $0.40M, and two of them are lists in this report.
Effect on the Expected case, CAD thousands. Each item is sized on its own.
The risks and levers overlap with the scenario assumptions, so they do not add up to the Conservative or Stretch figures. They show where leadership attention changes the outcome most.
7. Who to ask: annual fund
Your December appeal should not go to one list. It should go to four.
We scored the 6,130 donors who gave in the last five years on how recently, how often and how much they give, and whether their gifts are rising. Each segment gets a different ask. The lists use donor ID numbers only; Harbourlight matches them to names in its own database.
| Segment | Donors | Who they are | The ask | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likely December givers | 1,180 | Gave last December and in at least 2 of the last 3 years | Same as last gift, thank-you led | $360K |
| Upgrade candidates | 640 | 3+ years of giving, gifts rising, room to grow | Last gift plus 25 to 50%, named amount | $120K |
| Recoverable lapsed | 410 | Gave 2 to 4 years ago, with a multi-year history before that | Last gift, "we have missed you" message | $50K |
| Light touch | 3,900 | One-time or low-engagement donors | Email only, no mail or phone | $20K |
| Total | 6,130 | Plus $30K already received | $550K |
Expected values match the Expected case for the year-end appeal ($0.58M). If the upgrade segment receives personal, named asks, it adds about $70K more: the Stretch case.
36% of donors bring 96% of expected December value
Share of donors vs share of expected appeal revenue, by segment
How to use the lists before 31 December
- Mail by 25 November so letters land in the first week of December. Upgrade candidates get a letter with their own named ask amount.
- Phone the top 100 upgrade candidates in the first two weeks of December, staff or board volunteers, thank first and then ask.
- Final reminder email on 29 and 31 December to likely givers and upgrade candidates who have not yet given.
- Keep the light-touch segment on email. It saves print and postage on 3,900 donors for about 4% of the value.
8. Who to ask: major gift shortlist
45 people in your file look like major donors. 18 should be asked before 31 December.
Beyond the eight open asks, we looked for donors whose pattern matches Harbourlight’s past major donors: long loyalty, rising gifts, event and volunteer involvement, and board connections. Capacity ranges use public sources only, such as CRA charity filings and company directorships.
| ID | Why them | Capacity | Ask | Approach |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P-104 | 9 years of giving, up 4 years in a row; gala table host | $50K to $100K | $25K | ED visit |
| P-131 | Has given securities twice; markets steady this year | $100K+ | $50K | Gift of shares ask |
| P-122 | Business partner of a board member; attends events | $50K to $100K | $40K | Board introduction |
| P-152 | Trustee of a family foundation (public CRA filing) | $50K to $100K | $30K | Foundation letter |
| P-117 | Monthly donor 6 years, volunteer, recent large one-time gift | $25K to $50K | $15K | Site tour, then ask |
| P-140 | Major donor until 2022; came back with a small gift this year | $25K to $50K | $20K | Thank-you call first |
Example prospect brief: P-104
Ask before 31 December9. Action plan to 31 December
Five moves before 15 December protect the Expected case and open the Stretch.
| # | Action | Owner | By | At stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Move MG-02 and MG-08 from proposal to a formal ask | Director of Development | 15 Nov | $275K asks |
| 2 | Mail the segmented appeal: named upgrade asks to 640 donors, a "we have missed you" letter to 410 lapsed donors (page 7) | Annual giving manager | 25 Nov | +$70K |
| 3 | Get the provincial grant renewal confirmed in writing, with an impact case for full renewal | ED, grants lead | 30 Nov | $200K grant |
| 4 | Make in-person asks to the 18 shortlist prospects, starting with the top six (page 8) | ED, gift officers, board | 15 Dec | $0.95M asks |
| 5 | Board chair joins the ED to secure a decision on MG-01 | ED, board chair | 15 Dec | $250K ask |
Board reporting: present this report at the November finance committee and replace the $4.90M budget line with the three-scenario range.
10. Early read on 2027
Build the 2027 budget around $4.85M, not this year’s $4.90M plus growth.
- The renewing major donor base is growing about $0.20M a year once one-time gifts are removed.
- MG-05 and MG-06 are more likely to close in 2027 than this year, and should be budgeted there.
- The 27 cultivate-for-2027 prospects on page 8 are the start of next year’s pipeline. They are not yet counted in these figures.
- An early indication only. It will be refined with full-year actuals in January.
11. Assumptions register
Every assumption behind the numbers, and how to test it.
| Assumption | Source | How to test it |
|---|---|---|
| Stage probabilities: proposal 35%, ask made 55%, verbal yes 85% | Harbourlight close rates, last 3 years | Compare with this year’s decisions as they land |
| 25% of proposal and ask-made asks slip past 31 December | Slippage in each of the last 3 years | Confirm decision dates with each prospect |
| Renewing major donors give $0.29M from October to December | Renewal rate and timing, last 3 years | Track renewals weekly against this figure |
| Provincial grant renews at last year’s $200K | Leadership interview | Written confirmation by 30 November |
| Monthly donors grow 4%; attrition as last year | January to September run-rate | Monthly net donor count |
| Appeal response by segment follows the last three December appeals | Anonymized gift history, 2021 to 2025 | Response by segment in the first two weeks of December |
| Named upgrade asks lift average gift 15% in that segment (Stretch only) | Harbourlight’s 2023 upgrade test | Average gift in the upgrade segment vs last year |
| About 1 in 5 first asks to shortlist prospects close by 31 December | Harbourlight first-ask history, adjusted for a short window | Decisions on the top six by 15 December |
| No planned gifts or bequests in the Expected case | None notified at 30 September | Add only when notified in writing |
| Seasonality follows the 3-year average | Monthly revenue, 2023 to 2025 | Check November actuals against the curve |
How this report was built
A statistical baseline from three years of monthly history; a pipeline weighted by stage and timing; donor scoring on recency, frequency, gift size and trend; context from interviews and sector and economic signals; and senior review. AI assisted with data preparation, pattern-finding and drafting. Every figure comes from the forecasting and scoring models, not from AI.
Data used and data notes
Aggregated monthly revenue by stream, budget, an anonymized pipeline and an anonymized gift history (donor ID, date, amount, appeal). No names, addresses or contact details were shared. Data was handled under a signed data processing agreement and deleted after delivery.
This report is an independent estimate based on information supplied by the organization. It is not audited and does not guarantee results. This sample uses a fictional organization and illustrative figures.
Want this view of your own December?
Tell us what you hold. A spreadsheet of monthly revenue and your open asks is enough to start.